![]() With only three starts, he lacks the foundation of some of the other contenders but I think his upside is significantly higher. Honorable Mention: I mentioned Charge It above and he was the clear last one out of my top three. Maybe, the Arkansas Derby was a major turning point for him. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him at Churchill Downs in the days and weeks leading up to the Derby to see how he handles the spotlight. I profiled Cyberknife for this week’s Kentucky Derby Hopeful Snapshot, and my main takeaway is that he’s a serious talent with some maturing to do in the next five weeks. Although he dumped his rider before the race and then drifted in and out in the stretch, he earned a career-best 92 Beyer Speed Figure and a 95 Equibase Speed Figure that is five points off his career top. I also think there is a chance that Cyberknife showed in the Arkansas Derby that he’s beginning to figure things out a bit. Both Cyberknife and Charge It enjoyed breakout performances in their final prep races – Cyberknife winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park by 2 ¾ lengths for his first career stakes win and Charge It finishing second to White Abarrio in the Florida Derby in his stakes debut – but the former’s additional foundation (six starts) and final furlong in 13.18 seconds gives him a slight advantage. While Cyberknife was the obvious third option here, I really wrestled with giving it to Charge It if not for his slow final eighth of a mile in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa. For my Future Wager bet, I hope maybe he’s just not fully cranked up yet and there is plenty left in the fuel tank for May 7. This reason is more compelling because he is not winning the Kentucky Derby with that finishing kick. Two, he finished his final eighth of a mile in the Florida Derby in 14.09 seconds. He ran well enough in his stakes debut that day at Churchill in what was a stout class test and has improved since then. The argument here is that he’s a horse for course at Gulfstream Park where he’s 4-for-4, but I don’t buy it. ![]() ![]() One, his lone defeat in five starts came at Churchill Downs when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. There are two knocks against White Abarrio as I see it. He’s right there with the best 3-year-olds in terms of ability with a small step forward in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. He’s earned a 102 and 99 Equibase Speed Figure for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, respectively, while his Beyer Speed Figures were 97-96. That leads me to hope that we still have not yet seen his best. ![]() In the lead up to both the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby, he missed some training with a fever but still managed to run very well. The only Kentucky Derby Future Wager I’ve made this year was on White Abarrio at 22.50-1, so I believed in his chances to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown before his 1 ¼-length win in the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa April 2 at Gulfstream Park. He also has good tactical speed, which has become increasingly important in recent years, and the versatility to set the pace, press the pace, or stalk the pace for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. His four straight 97 Equibase Speed Figures are a bit less compelling, but he finished the final three-sixteenths of a mile in the Louisiana Derby in a little more than 18 seconds, which is fast for a 1 3/16-mile race. 26 indicates he’s headed the right way and capable of a big race with six weeks of rest between the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby. Likewise, an improving pattern of 87-88-98-102 Beyer Speed Figures since Dec. I’m a believer in the Ragozin Sheets and the 6 ¼ he earned for winning the Louisiana Derby March 26 at Fair Grounds stamps him a strong win contender. Sure, we could get a monster performance this weekend that bumps him from that perch, but I can’t see any set of circumstances where Epicenter is not one of the top two betting choices in the Derby, provided he stays healthy and on track for the race. With one weekend of major Kentucky Derby prep races left on the schedule, I think Epicenter has put himself on solid ground to be the favorite for the May 7 run for the roses at Churchill Downs.
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